A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. They authors two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
